New York Governor Election Market for Manhattan
The 2026 governor election reaches Manhattan through housing, transit, state taxes, public safety and the relationship between Albany and New York City. Polymarket US lists a market on who wins...
New York prediction markets. Made clear.
Explore New York prediction market news, platform research and clear guides. Compare contract rules, costs and risks before registering or trading.
The city. The markets. The bigger picture.
The stories moving the conversation. The platforms behind the prices. The details worth knowing before you trade.
Compare platforms Start with New York’s rules
01 / Stay informed
Read the Journal
02 / Compare
Research platforms
03 / Understand
Learn the basics
04 / Do the math
Calculate a payout
The Journal
Context is everything.
New York / News analysis
New York takes its prediction-market fight to Polymarket
New York announced a lawsuit against Polymarket US (opens in a new tab) on September 24. What the state alleges, what the filing does not establish, and what to check next.
New York / 5 min read
Prediction markets in New York: the essential guide
Access in New York depends on the platform, the product, your account and changing legal conditions.
Learn / 5 min read
A winning contract can pay less than you expect
Net profit equals your proceeds minus the cost of the contracts and fees. A $1 settlement payout is not $1 of profit.
The New York question
Available to access? Check what that actually means.
Kalshi (opens in a new tab) and Polymarket US (opens in a new tab) are Available, dispute pending (as of October 13, 2026) in New York. The state sued Kalshi on July 31, 2026 and Polymarket US on September 24, 2026; no court order blocks them. Federal exchange status, state legal disputes and your own account eligibility are separate checks.
The platform edit
Know where you stand.
Compare all four · Partner offers and terms
Partner sign-up links: Kalshi (opens in a new tab), Polymarket US (opens in a new tab), OG (opens in a new tab) and ProphetX (opens in a new tab).
A little clarity, before a contract
The payout isn’t the profit.
Example: 100 contracts at 40¢ cost $40, plus an assumed $2 in fees (Kalshi’s formula gives about $1.68 at 40¢). If you are right you receive $100, a $58 net profit; if you are wrong you lose $42.
The field guide
Build your understanding.
Learn / Explainer
The headline is only half the contract
Event definitions, deadlines, resolution sources and cancellation rules decide settlement.
Learn / Explainer
A winning contract can pay less than you expect
Entry cost, fees, settlement payout and early-exit costs, with a worked example.
Platforms / Explainer
One name. Two different Polymarket products.
Polymarket US and the international exchange are separate platforms with separate rules.
Frequently asked questions
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets people trade contracts tied to defined future events. A standard binary contract pays a stated amount if its outcome occurs and normally zero if it does not, subject to the written rules.
Are these prices live?
No. This publication provides dated reporting and educational examples. Calculator values are assumptions you enter, not live prices.
Which prediction market is best for New York?
Kalshi and Polymarket US are Available, dispute pending (as of October 13, 2026) in New York. The state sued Kalshi on July 31, 2026 and Polymarket US on September 24, 2026; no court order blocks them. Check account, contract and location eligibility before funding.
How does Manhattan Prediction Markets make money?
We may earn commissions through disclosed affiliate links. We do not sell advertising placements or charge readers to use the guides and calculator.
Latest
News
NYC election results 2026: Manhattan's races and proposals
New York City votes on Tuesday, 3 November 2026. Manhattan voters pick a governor (Hochul vs Blakeman), a member of Congress in the 10th, 12th or 13th district, and vote yes or no on five City Charter proposals. Polls close at 9 p.m. We add each result here as it's called, with the source.
News
NYC ballot, 3 November 2026: what is on it and which markets exist
What is on the 3 November 2026 ballot in Manhattan: governor, comptroller, attorney general, three House seats and five city proposals.
Guides
Prediction market fees: calculate the real cost
Calculate prediction market entry cost, fees, payout and profit. A worked example explains maximum loss and why an apparent return can be misleading.
Guides
Polymarket US vs international: what New Yorkers should know
Distinguish Polymarket US from the international platform. Check the legal entity, account access and matching rules before following a guide.
News
Prediction markets in New York: a sourced timeline.
Follow selected New York prediction market developments. Separate state enforcement announcements, exchange registrations and dated provider statements.
News
New York’s Polymarket lawsuit: what readers need to know
Understand New York’s lawsuit against Polymarket US, what the state alleges and why a complaint differs from a court ruling blocking access.
Guides
Who regulates event contracts: the CFTC and New York
The CFTC registers the exchanges and clearing houses behind Kalshi, Polymarket US, OG and ProphetX. New York claims a role too. Here is who does what.
Guides
Kalshi vs Polymarket US: how the two exchanges differ
Compare Kalshi and Polymarket US for New York. Understand exchange identity, access disputes, fees and the checks to make before funding.
Kalshi · Trade $25 and Get $25! · code NYPREDICTSClaim (opens in a new tab)
21+ · T&Cs apply · Terms
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.